Euroconstruct predicts that construction output growth will drop to 0% in 2024 across Europe
New economic data points to a difficult two years for construction across Europe, with growth forecasts dropping to 0.2% in 2023 and a flat 0% in 2024 compared to 2% previously. Despite a more positive 2022 with 3.0% growth expected, construction output is likely to be weaker than previously thought, with no recovery expected until 2025.
The figures were revealed at Euroconstruct's economic forecast event last week in London, where experts from Experian and Barbour ABI shared the latest trend data.
Residential leads downturn
Much of the negative outlook is driven by the new residential and residential renovation sectors. The era of low interest rates led to a boom in new-build housing across Europe, but the situation has changed substantially in the past six months. Housing sales have slowed down, consumer confidence has dropped and there is now oversupply in many countries.
The result is that the growth outlook for next year's new residential construction has turned negative. The picture does not improve when looking at the construction sector as a whole.
Country by Country
Italy is the best performer in Europe in 2021, with a high growth level of 12.1% driven in part by EU subsidies.
The UK, currently one of the worst-performing economies in Europe, faces a negative construction output growth cycle in 2023 (-0.4%) alongside Germany, which faces a negative or stagnating outlook for growth all the way up to 2025 (-0.4%).
Construction will also contract in eight countries, the most in Sweden and Finland. In both countries, construction has been high, so the decline partially marks a return to a more normal construction volume.
94th Euroconstruct Conference was held in London on the 18th November 2022, hosted by Barbour ABI and Experian.
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