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| Arup launched 'Drivers of Change – 2006' Arup's Foresight and Innovation team, a group tasked with exploring emerging trends and how they impact upon the business of Arup and its clients, have published a set of 50 cards which identify and explore the leading factors which will affect our world in the future – factors which are known as 'drivers of change'. The 'Drivers of Change – 2006' cards are arranged and presented within a framework known as STEEP (organised along societal, technological, economic, environmental and political lines), with each card depicting a single driver of change. The cards provide a vibrant visual record of the research that Arup has undertaken in recent years, and are intended to be used as a tool for discussion groups, as personal prompts for workshop events or as a 'thought for the week'. Arup is a global design and engineering firm and a leading creative force in the built environment. It was founded 60 years ago by the engineer and philosopher, Ove Arup, who introduced the concept of 'total design', in which teams of professionals from diverse disciplines work together on projects of exceptional quality. Since 2003, the Foresight & Innovation team has conceptualised and facilitated over 60 workshops worldwide – with groups as diverse as lawyers, politicians, schoolchildren and Fortune 500 directors. Issues around energy infrastructure are raised in the technology card set and the question is asked: When will petroleum disappear from our energy maps? In 2004 fuel cells began to replace batteries in some portable electronic devices. It is predicted that hydrogen will start being used as a back up power source in remote locations, and in industrial and large commercial buildings over the next two to three years. By 2008, hydrogen could power specialised fleets of vehicles such as buses. By 2015, hydrogen-fuelled cars might be available to the mass market. Iceland plans to become the world's first all-hydrogen economy by 2030. Biometric Identification and implications surrounding the loss of identity are also examined in the technology drivers. Voice prints, face recognition, iris scanning, and fingerprint analysis will soon become standard methods for identifying humans. In fact the Dutch government has already begun to use iris scanning to identify immigrants. In the UK the government is looking to include fingerprints on new national entitlement cards and both Acer and Compaq have released notebook computers with built-in fingerprint scanners for greater security. Among the social issues identified in the set are the effects of an ageing population. Developed countries have an ageing population, with significant numbers in the 65+ age range. The 60+ age group will reach one billion in number for 2020. 75 percent of this age group lives in the developed world. The implications of this are increasing difficulties in pension provision; an ageing workforce; a general change in the availability of human resources; and the requirement of more facilities for an ageing population. Drivers of Change STEEP framework includes: Social (ageing population, communication, education for all, fear, future households, holistic wellness, identity, literacy, personal productivity, population distribution), Technology (atomic engineering, biometric identification, biomimetics, biotech society, connected communities, energy infrastructure, preventative care, radio frequency identification (RFID), smart dust, wearable computing), Environment (aviation, consumption localisation, disposable quality goods, ecological footprint, endangered species, energy use, travel, urbanisation waste, water), Economic (airport shopping, containerised cargo, china trade, consumer debt, democratisation of luxury, digital currency, global trade, migration, outsourcing, wealth gap), Political (asianization, compensation culture, ethical investment, global governance, food legislation, pensions, strife, surveillance society, trading blocs, the vote). write your comments about the article :: © 2006 Construction News :: home page |